Memory Market Forecast 2026: Will DRAM and NAND Prices Keep Rising?

Seeing memory prices¹ climb? You're worried about your budget and production costs. We analyzed the market to show you what's driving this trend and what's coming next.

Yes, DRAM and NAND prices are expected to continue rising through 2026. This is largely driven by the explosive demand for AI servers², which consume high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and squeeze the production capacity for standard memory types like DDR5³, leading to market-wide shortages⁴.

This isn't just a temporary spike in the market. It's a fundamental shift in how memory is produced and allocated. For anyone in procurement or hardware design, understanding this change is critical. To see how this affects your strategy, we need to look closer at the root cause. Let's explore how the AI boom⁵ is completely reshaping the memory landscape and what it means for your business.

How is the AI boom⁵ causing standard memory prices¹ to skyrocket?

Your regular DDR5³ prices are soaring. You thought AI was about software, but it's hitting your hardware budget hard. The connection is a production bottleneck⁶ you need to understand.

AI servers² require huge amounts of High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM)⁷. Since HBM and standard DRAM share production lines, manufacturers are shifting capacity to the more profitable HBM. This creates a shortage of standard DDR memory, driving up prices for everyone else.

The entire memory industry⁸ is being reshaped by the demand for Artificial Intelligence. At the heart of this change is a special type of memory called HBM. It's essential for the powerful GPUs that train AI models. The problem is that making HBM is complex and uses up a lot of the same factory resources as standard memory, like the DDR5³ you use in your products. I was talking to a client last month who was shocked their DDR5³ quote was 30% higher than their previous order. We had to show them how this was a market-wide issue tied directly to the AI server build-out.

HBM's Impact on Wafer Capacity

HBM is not just another memory chip. It's a stack of DRAM dies connected together. This design gives it incredible speed, but it comes at a cost. An HBM chip takes up more space on a silicon wafer⁹ and has a more complex manufacturing process than a standard DDR5³ chip. Because of this, major manufacturers like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are dedicating more and more of their production lines to HBM, as it brings in higher profits. Industry reports from TrendForce confirm that this shift is the primary reason for the supply squeeze on conventional DRAM.

This reallocation means less factory time is available to make the standard memory everyone else needs. It's a simple case of supply and demand. As the supply of DDR5³ tightens, the price naturally goes up.

What does the DRAM supply chain¹⁰ look like for the next two years?

Planning your production for 2025? Uncertainty in the DRAM market can derail your projects. You need a clear forecast to avoid supply disruptions¹¹ and unexpected costs down the line.

The DRAM supply chain¹⁰ will remain tight. Major manufacturers are allocating most of their new capital expenditure to HBM production. This means little to no new capacity for standard DDR4 and DDR5³ is expected until at least late 2025, keeping supply limited and prices high.

We are seeing a clear pattern from all the major memory makers. Their investment priorities have shifted. Instead of building new factories for standard memory, they are converting existing lines and spending new capital on expanding HBM capacity. This makes perfect business sense for them, but it creates a huge challenge for the rest of the industry. For procurement managers¹², this means the tight supply situation is not going to improve anytime soon. We have to prepare for a sustained period of higher prices and longer lead times.

Forecast by DRAM Type

The impact is not the same across all types of DRAM. Some segments will be hit harder than others. Understanding these differences is key to building a resilient supply chain¹⁰ strategy. We are advising our clients to plan for specific challenges depending on the memory they use.

• DDR5³: This segment is caught in a perfect storm. Demand is growing from new PC platforms and standard server upgrades. At the same time, its supply is the most directly impacted by the HBM capacity shift. We expect significant price increases here.
• DDR4: While demand is slowly decreasing, manufacturers are phasing out production even faster. This is creating a shortage for legacy products that still rely on DDR4. Prices will remain firm and could even increase as supply dwindles.
• Mobile DRAM: The smartphone market has its own demand cycle. It will be less affected than the server market, but it will still feel the price pressure as manufacturers prioritize their most profitable products, which are currently HBM and server DRAM.

Based on this outlook, waiting for prices to drop is no longer a viable strategy. Securing your supply must be the top priority.

Is the NAND flash¹³ market facing the same price pressures as DRAM?

You're also buying NAND flash¹³ for SSDs and other storage. Are you going to get hit with a double price hike? The factors are different, but the outcome is looking very similar.

Yes, the NAND flash¹³ market is also seeing price increases, but for slightly different reasons. While AI contributes, the main driver here is manufacturers deliberately cutting production to restore profitability after a major downturn. Supply remains controlled, pushing prices up.

The NAND market is a different story, but it arrives at the same conclusion: higher prices. Unlike DRAM, the NAND market just came out of a period of massive oversupply and crashing prices in 2022 and 2023. Manufacturers lost a lot of money. In response, they have all significantly cut back on production to get supply and demand back in balance. I remember a time last year when we could get incredible deals on enterprise SSDs¹⁴ for our clients. Now, those days are over. Suppliers are holding firm on price, and lead times are getting longer.

The Road to Profitability

The strategy from NAND suppliers like Samsung, Kioxia, and Western Digital is clear: control supply to raise prices and restore profit margins. They are not going to flood the market with cheap NAND again anytime soon. Their production cuts have been effective, and prices have been rising steadily for several quarters.

• Controlled Production: Suppliers are carefully managing their factory output. They are only increasing production slowly as prices rise, ensuring the market does not become oversupplied again.
• Enterprise SSD Demand: The AI boom⁵ also plays a role here. AI servers² require massive amounts of fast storage, which increases the demand for high-capacity enterprise SSDs¹⁴ (eSSDs). This puts additional pressure on the supply of high-quality NAND flash¹³.
• Consumer Market Recovery: Demand for smartphones and PCs is also recovering, which further tightens the overall NAND supply.

The era of cheap, abundant flash storage has ended for now. As a procurement manager, you must factor these sustained price increases into your budget for SSDs, eMMC, and other NAND-based products.

How can you protect your projects from these rising memory costs?

Your budget is under intense pressure from these market shifts. You can't stop the price hikes, and you might feel helpless. But there are proactive steps you can take.

To mitigate rising costs, procurement managers¹² should move away from spot buying. Focus on building long-term partnerships¹⁵ with trusted distributors, placing forward orders to lock in prices and supply, and exploring qualified alternative components where possible. Proactive planning is absolutely key.

In a volatile market like this, the old way of buying components just doesn't work. Relying on the spot market for critical memory parts is a recipe for disaster. You will face extreme price volatility¹⁶ and the very real risk of not getting parts at all, which could shut down your production line. We need to shift our thinking from reactive purchasing to proactive supply chain¹⁰ management. This is where our 20+ years of experience really helps our clients. We work with them to build a strategy that provides stability in an unstable market.

From Reactive to Proactive Procurement

A proactive strategy is built on foresight and strong partnerships. It means looking ahead 6 to 12 months and securing what you need before it becomes a crisis. Here are the key pillars of this approach:

• Long-Term Agreements (LTAs): Work with a trusted distributor like Nexcir to secure your projected demand for the next few quarters. This gives you price and supply stability.
• Strategic Sourcing: Don't rely on a single source. A partner with a global supply network can access inventory from different regions, providing more options and better resilience.
• Buffer Stock: For your most critical memory components, consider increasing your safety stock. The carrying cost is small compared to the cost of a line-down situation.
• Design Flexibility: Work with your engineering team to qualify alternative part numbers. Having pre-approved substitutes gives you flexibility if your primary component becomes unavailable or too expensive.

By adopting a strategic approach, you can turn uncertainty into a competitive advantage. You secure your production while your competitors are scrambling for parts.

Conclusion

The memory market will remain challenging. AI demand is squeezing DRAM supply, and NAND producers are controlling output. Proactive procurement is the only way to ensure stability for your projects.